Difference-in-Differences (DiD) & Dynamic Event Study Methods estimate causal treatment effects for non-randomized policy interventions, city-level rollouts, or macro-marketing campaigns; Mathematical formulation: estimating the double difference across groups and time:
τ^DiD=(YˉT,post−YˉT,pre)−(YˉC,post−YˉC,pre); estimated via Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) OLS:
Yit=α+γTreati+λPostt+β(Treati×Postt)+ϵit, where interaction coefficient
β captures the causal treatment effect; Inviolable Assumption:
Parallel Trends Assumption (in the absence of treatment, the average path of the treatment group would follow the control group trajectory); verified empirically via Event Study dynamic coefficients (
t−k pre-trends must be statistically indistinguishable from zero).