collinearity inflates coefficient variance by exactly
VIFj — in OLS
Var(w^j)=(1−Rj2)∑i(xij−xˉj)2σ2, so a small
1−Rj2 explodes the variance, producing sign flips, huge standard errors and broken t-tests, while
R2 and predictions barely change — a prediction-only view misses it. Fixes: drop high-VIF features, PCA / factor analysis, ridge regression (adding
λI forces full rank), or collect more orthogonal data.